Draft Stock Watch

Jaden Ivey
Jaden Ivey's furious start to the 2021-22 season has moved him into top-5 consideration for the NBA Draft. (Photo courtesy of Purdue Athletics)

The first month of the college season is in the books, and per usual, there have been plenty of surprises.  Many of the projected lottery picks for the 2022 NBA Draft have underwhelmed, while numerous unheralded prospects have put themselves on the radar.  Here’s a quick look at who is hot and who is not.  

Most Valuable Overall Contributors

Overall metrics exist for a reason, and as you see, the chart below features many of the prospects who improved their draft stock in November.  The chart shows the 32 players in Division I who currently have a box-score plus-minus of at least 11, more than one win share, and a player efficiency rating greater than 25.  Of course, stats never tell the full story, which is why we use the eye test.  Some visually and intuitively impressive players did not meet the stringent criteria for this list, particularly freshmen, including Duke’s Trevor Keels, Michigan’s Moussa Diabate, Iowa State’s Tyrese Hunter, and Taran Armstrong of Cal Baptist.  

All but two players on this list, Tylor Perry and Nick Muszynski, are currently ranked on HP’s Draft Board.  

PlayerSchoolGMPPERWSBPM
Keegan MurrayIowa718349.42.118.4
Christian KolokoArizona614138.41.518.1
Justin BeanUtah State828837.22.616.1
Chet HolmgrenGonzaga820531.41.616.0
Orlando RobinsonFresno State722435.31.915.2
Kendall BrownBaylor716930.11.415.0
Michael DevoeGeorgia Tech621133.31.715.0
Tari EasonLouisiana State818133.91.615.0
Zach EdeyPurdue814843.71.514.8
E.J. LiddellOhio State720835.31.414.7
Jonathan DavisWisconsin619528.91.314.5
Pete NanceNorthwestern717735.31.414.5
Marcus SasserHouston824927.21.913.9
Marcus BinghamMichigan State817829.31.113.6
Alex BarcelloBrigham Young722428.21.813.4
Wendell MooreDuke825929.31.913.4
Christian BraunKansas722328.41.513.1
Jabari SmithAuburn719828.91.412.7
Kennedy ChandlerTennessee616527.51.112.4
Trayce Jackson-DavisIndiana722634.71.912.4
Mark WilliamsDuke815933.31.212.3
Brandon SlaterVillanova721327.21.512.2
Tylor PerryNorth Texas616828.41.312.1
Ochai AgbajiKansas723428.81.611.9
Jack NungeXavier716129.21.211.4
Trevion WilliamsPurdue815433.31.211.4
Oscar TshiebweKentucky719137.11.711.3
Javon Freeman-LibertyDePaul621131.91.711.2
Nick MuszynskiBelmont925632.01.611.2
Azuolas TubelisArizona614328.21.111.2
Darius DaysLouisiana State822825.21.811.1
Jaden IveyPurdue822026.91.611.0

Stock Rising

We put together a highlight video of many of the prospects who dramatically improved their draft stock in November.  

Five-stars Sliding

Top-20, one-and-done recruits typically have the advantage of getting the benefit of the doubt in the NBA Draft, meaning that they will be drafted as long as they don’t have a completely disastrous freshman season.  However, these high-upside youngsters are not immune to slipping out of the lottery, and could even fall to the second round.  Some recent examples include Bol Bol, Kevin Porter, and Nassir Little.

This season’s crop of five-stars that are off to a rough start include G League Ignite guard Jaden Hardy, Milwaukee wing Patrick Baldwin Jr., UCLA forward Peyton Watson, Michigan wing Caleb Houstan, Duke wing A.J. Griffin, Kentucky forward Daimion Collins, and Michigan State wing Max Christie.  Out of that group, only Griffin and Collins are shooting better than 35 percent from the floor, but both freshmen are playing less than 15 minutes per game.  Griffin is coming off a serious knee injury and playing behind two likely first-round picks (Wendell Moore and Trevor Keels), so he has understandably been limited.  Collins, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same issues, but history tells us that UK coach John Calipari often uses perplexing rotations.  

The most worrisome prospect in this group is Baldwin, who plays for a bad team that features a weak schedule.  He has been limited to just four games due to an ankle injury, and his one opportunity to show that he can play with the “big boys” was a disaster (an 81-45 loss at Florida in front of 30-plus NBA scouts).  I have a feeling that Baldwin will be one of the most mysterious prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft, assuming that he leaves college.  

Slowly Slipping

Other talented prospects who are not meeting expectations include:

  • Marcus Bagley (Arizona State) is missing significant action due to injuries for the second straight season. 
  • Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall) is not playing poorly, but he has not done enough to earn big minutes (22.3 MPG) for a deep Seton Hall team.
  • Marcus Carr (Texas), a dynamic scoring guard, has yet to find his groove with the Longhorns, making just 39.3 percent from the floor and averaging less than nine points per game.  
  • Andre Curbelo (Illinois) is currently injured, and the sophomore has been a walking turnover this season, averaging four TOs per game.
  • Josiah James (Tennessee), who is also currently injured, struggled mightily in the first three games of the season, making just 4 of 22 shots (18.2 percent).
  • Earl Timberlake (Memphis), a sturdy combo guard, is shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor and playing just 15.9 minutes per game, while Coach Penny Hardaway tries to figure out his rotation.
  • Will Richardson (Oregon) is having a solid season in general, but the senior guard has had some dreadful games against better competition.

Most Efficient Scorers

Currently, there are 32 DI players with a FG% of at least 50, a 3P% of at least 40, and a FT% of at least 75 that have scored at least 100 points, are averaging more than 13 points per game, and are averaging more than 1.1 points per possession. 

PlayerSchoolGMPPTSFG%3P%FT%PPPPPG
Michael DevoeGeorgia Tech62111500.5650.5900.7671.26525.0
Ochai AgbajiKansas72341580.5550.4440.7621.22822.6
Justin BeanUtah State82881770.6600.5560.8751.33622.1
Tanner HoldenWright State72371530.5570.6250.8161.13521.9
Khalif BattleTemple72231500.5380.4880.8061.19421.4
David RoddyColorado State82341690.5870.4440.7781.22921.1
Jayden MartinezNew Hampshire51681010.5650.4500.7781.23220.2
Tristen NewtonEast Carolina82601520.5150.4050.8531.11819.0
Hyunjung LeeDavidson72241320.5230.4380.9051.25018.9
Steele VentersEastern Washington72181320.5300.4740.8391.18518.9
Jeriah HorneTulsa82671510.5050.4570.8571.11018.9
A.J. WalkerAir Force72511310.5650.4360.8181.13318.7
Alex BarcelloBrigham Young72241280.5350.4550.9251.29218.3
Jacob OgnacevicLipscomb82031440.6030.6360.8941.28618.0
Tyler BurtonRichmond82521410.5270.4360.8131.16517.6
Taylor FunkSaint Joseph’s72141220.5540.5280.9231.18017.4
Pete NanceNorthwestern71771210.5280.4550.8501.15917.3
Joe QuintanaLoyola Marymount72351180.5000.4911.0001.24716.9
Andre KellyCalifornia82561330.6750.5000.8481.31716.6
Isaac MushilaCorpus Christi71601110.6850.5000.7501.20715.9
Reyne SmithCharleston82081250.5000.4840.9091.34815.6
Moses WoodPortland103211560.5220.4900.8811.15215.6
Keondre KennedyUMBC72071080.5620.4810.8131.24115.4
Ethan WrightPrinceton82381200.5000.4811.0001.16515.0
LJ CryerBaylor71761030.5490.4870.7501.24114.7
Brandon SlaterVillanova72131020.6360.4810.8261.45714.6
Felipe HaaseMercer82601170.6120.5380.8241.32214.6
Tyrone LyonsSouthern71971010.5150.6110.8151.11014.4
Dylan PainterDelaware92731280.5810.5000.7961.11214.2
Julian StrawtherGonzaga82181120.5130.4250.7731.20214.0
Kyle FosterHoward81791110.5610.5310.7861.42313.9
Dan FotuSaint Mary’s91981240.6150.5000.8261.20413.8

Most Efficient Floor Generals

Currently, there are just 16 DI players who have played at least 100 minutes, are avering at least three assists per game, have an assist percentage of at least 35, have a turnover percentage less than 25, and are averaging greater than 1.2 points plus assists per possession. 

PlayerSchoolGMPP+A PPASTTOVA/TAST%TOV%
Cameron ParkerMontana81791.664.31.52.941.524.3
Taran ArmstrongCal Baptist82671.478.03.12.644.422.7
Xavier JohnsonIndiana71601.464.62.61.835.924.4
Isaiah StevensColorado State82681.437.41.35.735.58.6
Tevin BrewerFIUl82441.425.92.12.841.013.7
Lucas StieberGreen Bay71781.425.11.33.940.918.2
Kevin JohnsonIllinois-Chicago72391.396.72.92.335.821.0
Ta’Lon CooperMorehead State82741.376.62.03.336.117.6
Darius PerryCentral Florida61771.365.03.21.636.422.2
Boo BuieNorthwestern72211.356.32.32.737.512.7
Jared BynumProvidence71401.343.71.62.337.019.5
Sahvir WheelerKentucky72241.338.73.12.839.721.7
Grant SherfieldNevada82751.326.53.81.736.518.2
John-Michael WrightHigh Point72371.255.31.43.835.16.9
Jose PerezManhattan72231.246.72.42.841.115.2
Alonzo VergeNebraska82361.215.92.62.342.714.5

Dominating in the Paint

Currently, there are just 18 players in Division I who have played at least 100 minutes and have an effective FG% greater than 52, a rebounding percentage greater than 17, and a block percentage greater than nine. 

PlayerSchoolGMPeFG%TRB%BLK%
Zach EdeyPurdue71310.73822.19.2
Kevin SamuelFGCU82170.71117.312.6
Keegan MurrayIowa71830.66018.69.1
Jalen DurenMemphis71710.65218.814.9
Mark WilliamsDuke81590.63617.615.3
Joel SorianoSt. John’s61140.63317.610.1
Jack NungeXavier71610.59618.49.1
Pete NanceNorthwestern71770.58417.99.7
Nathan MensahSan Diego State71720.56617.69.5
Marcus BinghamMichigan State81780.56518.814.3
Orlando RobinsonFresno State72240.56117.79.1
Austin JohnsonUC-Irvine51040.56018.112.0
Johni BroomeMorehead State82190.55121.314.7
Colin CastletonFlorida71930.54920.511.5
Moussa CisseOklahoma State81420.53718.114.7
Tari EasonLouisiana State81810.53619.19.6
Kadin ShedrickVirginia81760.52917.217.9
Walker KesslerAuburn71620.52719.016.5

Most Efficient Jump Shooters

There are currently 36 shooters in DI who have played at least 100 minutes, are making at least 40 percent of their attempts from deep, averaging at least three 3-pointers per game, and averaging more than 1.2 points per possession on half-court jumpers.  Only four of the 36 sharpshooters are currently on the HP Draft Board, partially because these stats can be somewhat misleading.  For example, the data doesn’t say anything about the difficulty of the shots (guarded/unguarded, off the dribble/off the catch, and so on).  

PlayerSchoolGMP3PM3PA3P%3PGJS-PPP
Drake JeffriesWyoming722327470.5743.91.773
Patrick GoodWinthrop719925520.4813.61.769
Jaylen MinnettMissouri State511718340.5293.61.767
Kyle FosterHoward817926490.5313.31.565
Michael DevoeGeorgia Tech621123390.5903.81.510
Taylor FunkSaint Joseph’s721428530.5284.01.444
Ethan WrightPrinceton823826540.4813.31.438
Nijel PackKansas State616618370.4863.01.435
Alex HunterFurman829034720.4724.31.431
C.J. KellyMassachusetts719022420.5243.11.425
Reyne SmithCharleston820831640.4843.91.417
Riley MillerSt. Thomas (MN)826242900.4675.31.403
Alfonso PlummerIllinois821824570.4213.01.400
David Jenkins Jr.Utah718523520.4423.31.375
Jalen GibbsJacksonville State618619360.5283.21.375
Kaiden RiceGeorgetown615124550.4364.01.370
Josh MorganIncarnate Word412414250.5603.51.367
Travis EveeRice824726600.4333.31.340
Nelly CummingsColgate827026510.5103.31.333
Jason RocheThe Citadel724123560.4113.31.333
Joe QuintanaLoyola Marymount723527550.4913.91.320
Nate JohnsonXavier720621440.4773.01.317
Collin GillespieVillanova723525570.4393.61.311
Tyrese WilliamsQuinnipiac716321460.4573.01.311
George PapasMonmouth725826570.4563.71.300
Joseph GirardSyracuse722923430.5353.31.289
Marcus SasserHouston824928590.4753.51.273
Michael ForrestFlorida Atlantic823726640.4063.31.259
Cameron TysonSeattle719627640.4223.91.250
Chase JohnstonStetson620319440.4323.21.250
Carl PierreRice827325560.4463.11.250
Hyunjung LeeDavidson722421480.4383.01.233
Brendan BarryDartmouth516020460.4354.01.227
Brandon BetsonChicago State723721480.4383.01.218
Noah FreidelSouth Dakota State925034750.4533.81.210
Colby RogersSiena826424570.4213.01.205

Sources, Credits, and Acknowledgements  

Stats used in our scouting reports come from Synergy Sports Technology, RealGM.com, and Sports-Reference.com.  Other outside sources are noted with links to the source.  Click here to see HP’s statistical abbreviation key.

Special thanks to Connor Ullathorne for producing “Stock Rising.”

About the Author(s)

  • Richard has worked as a sports writer/editor/analyst since 1998, and is NBA credentialed. He has contributed to various magazines, radio shows, and a number of other sites, including ESPN.com, SI.com, and USAToday.com. He is the former CEO of FantasyFootballExperts.com and a former member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). He is currently the Managing Director at Hoops Prospects. Follow on Twitter @HoopsProspects.