Need some last-minute help with your bracket? Hoops Prospects has you covered. In this article, you’ll find our staff predictions, sleeper picks, the most likely upsets, key team stats, a tourney cheat sheet, and a list of players to watch.
On Tuesday, March 14, the Hoops Prospects Podcast (HPP) crew picked a collective bracket for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, analyzing all of the matchups until they arrived at an eventual champion. Also, Drew Barton, Ayad Bunni, Jake Copestick, and myself made their individual Final Four selections and picked a sleeper team in each region. Below is the HPP Bracket episode, the full collective bracket (PDF), a summary of our individual picks, and more. And yes, the full collective bracket is in the name of our mascot, Mookie, my dog.
Staff Picks
Surprisingly, no one picked the top overall seed, Alabama, to win it all, expecting the team’s off-court issues to eventually take a toll.
| Drew Barton | Ayad Bunni | Jake Copestick | Rich Harris | Collective Bracket | |
| Champion | Texas | Houston | Houston | UConn | UConn |
| Runner-up | Alabama | Creighton | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
| South Final Four | Alabama | Creighton | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
| East Final Four | Marquette | Purdue | Duke | Marquette | Duke |
| Midwest Final Four | Texas | Houston | Houston | Texas | Texas |
| West Final Four | Gonzaga | Gonzaga | Kansas | UConn | UConn |
| South Sleeper | Furman | Missouri | Furman | Missouri | Furman |
| East Sleeper | Memphis | Oral Roberts | Memphis | Memphis | Memphis |
| Midwest Sleeper | Texas A&M | Colgate | Drake | Penn State | Texas A&M |
| West Sleeper | Illinois | Boise State | Arkansas | Arkansas | Arkansas |
Upset Alert
If you’re looking for upsets, here is my list of best bets in order of preference.
- Boise State (10) over Northwestern (7)
- Pittsburgh (11) over Iowa State (6)
- Providence (11) over Kentucky (6)
- Penn State (10) over Texas A&M (7)
- Utah State (10) over Missouri (7)
- Drake (12) over Miami (5)
- Furman (13) over Virginia (4)
- Kent State (13) over Indiana (4)
- VCU (12) over Saint Mary’s (5)
Cinderella
If you’re looking for a high seed to sneak into the Final Four, I would suggest the Memphis Tigers. The Tigers not only won the AAC Championship by soundly defeating No. 2 ranked Houston on Sunday, but they also gave the Cougars everything they wanted in two close regular-season losses. Additionally, Memphis played a fairly tough out-of-conference schedule that included wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and VCU plus a close loss at Alabama.
Cheat Sheet
Over the years, I have studied upsets in the tourney, which led me to developing a rating metric called the Upset Index (UPI). This metric emphasizes the statistics that I have found to be most influential in games where higher seeds beat lower seeds. The formula includes margin of victory, 3-point shooting, turnover margin, rebounding margin, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and strength of schedule. Below are the 68 teams in the tournament ranked by UPI. The chart also includes the Sagarin Rankings and the wins and losses vs. top-50 teams via Sagarin.
Key Terms:
- MOV — Margin of Victory
- 3P PCTL — 3-point Shooting Percentile among all DI teams
- FT PCTL — Free-throw Shooting Percentile among all DI teams
- REBM PCTL — Rebounding Margin Percentile among all DI teams
- TOVM PCTL — Turnover Margin Percentile among all DI teams
- OFF EFF — Offensive Efficiency Percentile among all DI teams
- DEF EFF — Defensive Efficiency Percentile among all DI teams
- SOS — Strength of Schedule via Sagarin
- UPI — Upset Index
- SAG — Sagarin Rating
- Avg Rating — Average of UPI and SAG
| Rank | School | W | L | T50 W | T50 L | PTS | Opp PTS | MOV | 3P PCTL | FT PCTL | REBM PCTL | TOVM PCTL | OFF EFF | DEF EFF | SOS | UPI | SAG | Avg Rating |
| 1 | Texas | 26 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 77.9 | 67.4 | 10.5 | 45.0 | 87.6 | 34.5 | 97.8 | 85.9 | 90.1 | 81.9 | 94.0 | 90.5 | 92.3 |
| 2 | Baylor | 22 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 77.2 | 70.3 | 6.9 | 89.8 | 84.5 | 63.5 | 69.6 | 87.8 | 40.6 | 82.3 | 93.1 | 87.4 | 90.2 |
| 3 | UConn | 25 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 78.7 | 65.2 | 13.5 | 74.9 | 85.6 | 99.7 | 53.6 | 84.3 | 85.4 | 79.6 | 93.0 | 90.1 | 91.5 |
| 4 | Gonzaga | 27 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 87.5 | 72.9 | 14.6 | 97.2 | 32.3 | 92.3 | 92.8 | 100.0 | 44.2 | 77.5 | 92.4 | 90.5 | 91.5 |
| 5 | Kansas | 27 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 74.9 | 67.9 | 7.0 | 52.2 | 49.2 | 52.2 | 83.1 | 72.1 | 85.6 | 83.3 | 91.7 | 90.0 | 90.9 |
| 6 | Arizona | 28 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 82.7 | 71.5 | 11.2 | 95.3 | 40.1 | 95.9 | 23.8 | 95.6 | 78.2 | 78.9 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 90.6 |
| 7 | UCLA | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 73.9 | 60.3 | 13.6 | 56.6 | 55.2 | 82.6 | 99.4 | 68.0 | 98.6 | 79.2 | 91.3 | 91.2 | 91.2 |
| 8 | Marquette | 28 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 79.9 | 70.6 | 9.3 | 58.3 | 54.4 | 8.8 | 99.2 | 97.2 | 70.7 | 79.8 | 91.0 | 87.5 | 89.3 |
| 9 | Xavier | 25 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 81.4 | 74.1 | 7.3 | 99.2 | 45.3 | 94.2 | 31.5 | 93.4 | 33.4 | 80.4 | 90.8 | 86.5 | 88.6 |
| 10 | Houston | 31 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 75.0 | 56.5 | 18.5 | 53.3 | 51.9 | 98.1 | 97.2 | 89.0 | 100.0 | 76.1 | 90.8 | 91.9 | 91.3 |
| 11 | Miami (FL) | 25 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 79.4 | 72.1 | 7.3 | 85.1 | 95.9 | 72.7 | 71.8 | 97.0 | 27.6 | 77.7 | 90.0 | 84.2 | 87.1 |
| 12 | Memphis | 26 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 79.8 | 71.9 | 7.9 | 71.0 | 83.1 | 50.3 | 83.1 | 79.6 | 87.6 | 78.4 | 89.6 | 86.5 | 88.0 |
| 13 | Purdue | 29 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 73.1 | 62.7 | 10.4 | 24.0 | 78.5 | 100.0 | 26.2 | 81.8 | 72.7 | 81.0 | 89.4 | 89.2 | 89.3 |
| 14 | Creighton | 21 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 76.6 | 68.5 | 8.1 | 76.2 | 93.1 | 84.0 | 15.7 | 91.7 | 68.2 | 80.8 | 89.4 | 87.6 | 88.5 |
| 15 | Alabama | 29 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 82.2 | 68.5 | 13.7 | 42.3 | 60.8 | 98.3 | 8.0 | 73.5 | 98.9 | 81.3 | 89.3 | 92.2 | 90.8 |
| 16 | Indiana | 22 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 75.0 | 68.5 | 6.5 | 88.7 | 42.3 | 65.7 | 36.7 | 83.7 | 74.3 | 81.3 | 88.9 | 86.2 | 87.5 |
| 17 | Missouri | 24 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 79.5 | 74.6 | 4.9 | 78.2 | 89.2 | 0.8 | 100.0 | 96.4 | 42.0 | 78.7 | 88.4 | 82.4 | 85.4 |
| 18 | Saint Mary’s (CA) | 25 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 71.4 | 60.1 | 11.3 | 89.8 | 24.0 | 97.8 | 80.9 | 78.2 | 83.7 | 76.8 | 88.3 | 86.4 | 87.4 |
| 19 | Utah State | 25 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 78.6 | 69.7 | 8.9 | 98.9 | 91.7 | 85.9 | 23.8 | 97.5 | 54.4 | 76.5 | 88.1 | 84.1 | 86.1 |
| 20 | Virginia | 25 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 67.8 | 60.3 | 7.5 | 66.9 | 32.3 | 42.5 | 95.3 | 82.6 | 77.1 | 78.4 | 87.8 | 85.1 | 86.4 |
| 21 | San Diego State | 26 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 72.1 | 63.6 | 8.5 | 66.9 | 66.6 | 89.2 | 74.0 | 66.9 | 81.8 | 77.5 | 87.7 | 85.2 | 86.4 |
| 22 | Florida Atlantic | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 78.8 | 65.0 | 13.8 | 89.8 | 47.5 | 95.0 | 65.7 | 93.1 | 93.4 | 72.6 | 86.7 | 83.7 | 85.2 |
| 23 | Drake | 26 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 75.3 | 63.9 | 11.4 | 91.2 | 93.9 | 77.6 | 78.7 | 95.3 | 87.0 | 72.2 | 86.6 | 81.9 | 84.2 |
| 24 | Boise State | 23 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 72.2 | 64.3 | 7.9 | 82.6 | 68.5 | 79.0 | 62.4 | 79.0 | 84.5 | 76.8 | 86.5 | 81.9 | 84.2 |
| 25 | West Virginia | 19 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 76.3 | 71.0 | 5.3 | 58.3 | 75.7 | 70.4 | 78.7 | 69.9 | 50.3 | 82.4 | 86.4 | 85.9 | 86.2 |
| 26 | Duke | 26 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 72.5 | 63.9 | 8.6 | 40.1 | 94.2 | 98.9 | 23.8 | 66.3 | 80.1 | 78.9 | 86.2 | 87.3 | 86.7 |
| 27 | Kansas State | 23 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 75.5 | 69.0 | 6.5 | 47.0 | 85.6 | 66.3 | 56.9 | 56.1 | 89.5 | 80.4 | 86.1 | 85.3 | 85.7 |
| 28 | Penn State | 22 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 72.3 | 68.4 | 3.9 | 96.4 | 71.8 | 19.3 | 39.0 | 98.1 | 28.7 | 80.6 | 86.0 | 83.9 | 85.0 |
| 29 | NC State | 23 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 78.2 | 70.8 | 7.4 | 59.7 | 53.6 | 57.5 | 95.6 | 88.4 | 50.8 | 77.7 | 86.0 | 83.3 | 84.6 |
| 30 | Iowa | 19 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 80.2 | 74.4 | 5.8 | 51.4 | 72.7 | 57.2 | 91.2 | 90.3 | 18.5 | 80.7 | 85.7 | 84.9 | 85.3 |
| 31 | Texas A&M | 25 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 73.2 | 66.2 | 7.0 | 28.2 | 89.8 | 90.1 | 81.5 | 59.1 | 82.6 | 78.6 | 85.6 | 86.1 | 85.9 |
| 32 | Michigan State | 19 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 70.2 | 67.4 | 2.8 | 99.2 | 90.9 | 76.0 | 21.8 | 66.0 | 47.2 | 82.2 | 85.4 | 84.9 | 85.2 |
| 33 | Tennessee | 23 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 71.8 | 58.0 | 13.8 | 29.6 | 45.3 | 97.5 | 89.2 | 45.3 | 99.7 | 79.5 | 85.2 | 89.3 | 87.3 |
| 34 | Providence | 21 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 78.1 | 71.3 | 6.8 | 63.3 | 80.9 | 96.1 | 44.2 | 81.5 | 38.1 | 78.3 | 85.2 | 84.1 | 84.6 |
| 35 | Maryland | 21 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 70.4 | 63.2 | 7.2 | 31.5 | 72.7 | 64.1 | 74.3 | 75.1 | 78.7 | 79.8 | 85.0 | 85.5 | 85.2 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh | 22 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 76.1 | 70.5 | 5.6 | 76.2 | 90.6 | 69.3 | 50.6 | 92.3 | 41.4 | 77.2 | 84.9 | 81.5 | 83.2 |
| 37 | Nevada | 21 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 72.6 | 66.9 | 5.7 | 55.2 | 99.2 | 40.9 | 87.0 | 83.4 | 67.4 | 76.5 | 83.5 | 79.2 | 81.4 |
| 38 | Oral Roberts | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 84.2 | 70.1 | 14.1 | 86.7 | 95.9 | 46.7 | 94.2 | 99.4 | 80.7 | 68.9 | 83.5 | 80.5 | 82.0 |
| 39 | Kentucky | 21 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 75.1 | 68.0 | 7.1 | 68.8 | 35.1 | 99.4 | 38.4 | 64.6 | 49.4 | 79.4 | 82.9 | 86.0 | 84.5 |
| 40 | TCU | 21 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 75.2 | 67.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 32.3 | 51.9 | 93.6 | 49.7 | 90.9 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 86.0 | 83.8 |
| 41 | Iowa State | 19 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 68.4 | 62.8 | 5.6 | 45.0 | 12.4 | 79.8 | 94.8 | 25.7 | 83.4 | 82.9 | 81.5 | 84.8 | 83.1 |
| 42 | Iona | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 76.4 | 65.0 | 11.4 | 76.2 | 65.5 | 53.6 | 95.9 | 79.8 | 95.3 | 69.5 | 81.2 | 79.7 | 80.4 |
| 43 | USC | 22 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 72.8 | 67.3 | 5.5 | 53.3 | 78.7 | 37.0 | 44.2 | 62.4 | 89.8 | 78.1 | 81.1 | 84.1 | 82.6 |
| 44 | Kent State | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 76.6 | 65.7 | 10.9 | 40.1 | 59.7 | 49.7 | 98.3 | 72.7 | 96.1 | 71.7 | 81.1 | 81.1 | 81.1 |
| 45 | Furman | 24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 82.1 | 71.2 | 10.9 | 56.6 | 75.7 | 68.8 | 85.6 | 98.9 | 36.5 | 70.2 | 80.8 | 79.5 | 80.2 |
| 46 | Louisiana | 23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 78.0 | 69.8 | 8.2 | 93.9 | 18.0 | 96.1 | 50.6 | 82.0 | 61.3 | 71.7 | 80.6 | 77.4 | 79.0 |
| 47 | Charleston | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 80.8 | 67.4 | 13.4 | 37.3 | 75.7 | 97.2 | 81.8 | 76.5 | 91.7 | 69.0 | 80.5 | 80.7 | 80.6 |
| 48 | VCU | 27 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 71.4 | 62.9 | 8.5 | 56.6 | 27.9 | 46.7 | 91.4 | 55.5 | 97.5 | 73.7 | 80.5 | 83.5 | 82.0 |
| 49 | Arkansas | 20 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 74.4 | 67.4 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 21.8 | 69.3 | 74.3 | 58.0 | 86.7 | 80.1 | 79.8 | 85.8 | 82.8 |
| 50 | Northwestern | 21 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 67.7 | 62.5 | 5.2 | 18.5 | 87.0 | 37.0 | 98.1 | 27.1 | 90.3 | 79.9 | 79.6 | 83.9 | 81.7 |
| 51 | UC Santa Barbara | 25 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 72.2 | 65.6 | 6.6 | 66.9 | 63.3 | 60.5 | 68.0 | 92.8 | 66.9 | 69.6 | 79.3 | 76.4 | 77.8 |
| 52 | Grand Canyon | 21 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 75.3 | 66.8 | 8.5 | 95.9 | 47.5 | 79.0 | 17.4 | 86.5 | 76.5 | 71.7 | 79.2 | 76.0 | 77.6 |
| 53 | Montana State | 23 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 74.2 | 66.6 | 7.6 | 42.3 | 89.8 | 69.1 | 84.5 | 87.3 | 69.6 | 70.1 | 79.1 | 74.7 | 76.9 |
| 54 | Illinois | 20 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 74.7 | 67.0 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 14.9 | 88.1 | 51.9 | 52.8 | 85.1 | 79.9 | 78.5 | 85.3 | 81.9 |
| 55 | Colgate | 25 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 78.6 | 69.0 | 9.6 | 100.0 | 6.9 | 71.5 | 85.4 | 99.2 | 45.3 | 67.2 | 78.1 | 76.1 | 77.1 |
| 56 | Kennesaw State | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 75.3 | 68.9 | 6.4 | 85.1 | 8.6 | 55.0 | 85.1 | 70.7 | 76.8 | 69.7 | 77.3 | 73.1 | 75.2 |
| 57 | Auburn | 20 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 72.7 | 67.1 | 5.6 | 10.8 | 34.0 | 52.2 | 63.5 | 43.1 | 91.2 | 80.1 | 77.2 | 85.3 | 81.3 |
| 58 | Vermont | 22 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 73.0 | 66.6 | 6.4 | 74.9 | 27.9 | 30.1 | 86.2 | 96.7 | 34.3 | 69.8 | 76.6 | 76.7 | 76.7 |
| 59 | UNC Asheville | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 75.0 | 68.6 | 6.4 | 98.1 | 25.7 | 52.2 | 21.0 | 81.2 | 85.9 | 67.9 | 75.9 | 72.8 | 74.4 |
| 60 | Princeton | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 76.0 | 68.6 | 7.4 | 52.2 | 42.3 | 96.7 | 9.9 | 74.9 | 63.5 | 70.6 | 74.9 | 76.3 | 75.6 |
| 61 | Texas A&M-CC | 19 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 80.4 | 72.5 | 7.9 | 85.1 | 98.6 | 82.3 | 87.3 | 76.8 | 58.8 | 64.1 | 74.2 | 70.2 | 72.2 |
| 62 | Mississippi State | 21 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 65.9 | 61.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 84.5 | 81.8 | 9.9 | 97.2 | 78.5 | 73.1 | 82.3 | 77.7 |
| 63 | Arizona State | 22 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 70.3 | 67.7 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 20.7 | 22.1 | 88.1 | 17.4 | 95.0 | 79.1 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 76.8 |
| 64 | Northern Kentucky | 20 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 68.2 | 63.6 | 4.6 | 61.6 | 23.5 | 30.1 | 96.7 | 39.8 | 80.9 | 69.2 | 71.9 | 72.6 | 72.2 |
| 65 | Howard | 19 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 75.5 | 71.9 | 3.6 | 93.1 | 45.3 | 72.1 | 27.9 | 35.9 | 73.8 | 67.2 | 70.4 | 69.0 | 69.7 |
| 66 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 17 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 77.8 | 74.9 | 2.9 | 55.2 | 82.3 | 50.6 | 96.4 | 75.4 | 13.3 | 63.3 | 69.7 | 63.9 | 66.8 |
| 67 | SE Missouri State | 17 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 77.7 | 76.0 | 1.7 | 26.2 | 46.7 | 33.1 | 78.7 | 53.3 | 51.9 | 66.2 | 68.0 | 66.7 | 67.4 |
| 68 | Texas Southern | 12 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 69.4 | 71.6 | -2.2 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 64.6 | 26.5 | 3.3 | 76.2 | 67.6 | 61.8 | 65.3 | 63.6 |
Download PDF version of Cheat Sheet
Players to Watch
Lastly, if you play fantasy college basketball or you’re just interested in NBA Draft prospects, keep an eye on these unheralded stars.
| Colby Jones | W | Xavier |
| Baylor Scheierman | W | Creighton |
| Jalen Pickett | CG | Penn State |
| Anton Watson | F | Gonzaga |
| Kendric Davis | PG | Memphis |
| Drew Pember | PF | UNC-Asheville |
| Jordan Miller | SF | Miami (FL) |
| Tyler Kolek | PG | Marquette |
| Kobe Brown | F | Missouri |
| Markquis Nowell | PG | Kansas State |
| Max Abmas | PG | Oral Roberts |
| Devin Carter | CG | Providence |
| Tucker DeVries | W | Drake |
| Aidan Mahaney | CG | Saint Mary’s |
| Jalen Slawson | F | Furman |
| Ace Baldwin | PG | VCU |
| Chase Audige | W | Northwestern |
| Jamarius Burton | CG | Pittsburgh |
| Tyson Degenhart | F | Boise State |
| Ajay Mitchell | PG | UC Santa Barbara |
