We have hit the dead period for basketball. Summer League is over, free agency has come to a grinding halt, and training camp rosters are finalized for the most part. At this point, all we can do is wait for the NBA preseason to begin on October 3. With that in mind, Hoops Prospects will review the 2021 NBA Draft, pick by pick, breaking down the players’ games and grading each selection based on fit, long-term value, and cost (if a trade was involved).
In this segment, I will review picks 1-15. For selected picks, comments from fellow HP analysts Lee Branscome, Clayton Conover, and Bobby Zeffero are included.
Draft grades range from one star (★) to five stars (★★★★★), with the white stars (☆) representing a half star.
1 | Cade Cunningham | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Much like Zion Williamson in 2019, Cunningham was a strong consensus selection to be the top overall pick in 2021 NBA Draft, and by selecting him with the first pick, the Pistons added much-needed shot creation and perimeter scoring. I don’t believe that Cunningham has the same upside as Williamson, but the Oklahoma State product definitely has All-Star potential. Grade: ★★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Jalen Green | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The Rockets could not go wrong with the second-overall pick. The club’s options included USC’s Evan Mobley and Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, but ultimately, Houston went with the ultra-explosive Green. Personally, I favored Suggs at this spot, but only time will tell. There is little doubt that Green will be an elite scorer in the NBA; the G League Ignite product produced more than 20 points per game with outstanding shooting splits (.514/.526/.929) in three Summer League games. How great he ultimately will become depends on other aspects of his game. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Evan Mobley | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The Cavs took the best talent available in Mobley, a mobile seven-footer, and while there is some concern about how he will fit alongside center Jarrett Allen, I think the pair will mesh nicely. There is little doubt that Mobley will excel on the defensive end, and that is an area where Cleveland must improve. Offensively, the USC product is a very effective roller and cutter, and he shows promise as a shooter. His perimeter game definitely needs work, and he very much needs to add to muscle to thrive in the NBA. Grade: ★★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Scottie Barnes | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Even though Barnes ranked fifth on the 2021 HP Draft Board, this pick was a bit of a surprise. With the Raptors knowing that they were not going to bring back point guard Kyle Lowry, Jalen Suggs, who ranked second on the HP Draft Board, appeared to be the best choice. Fellow HP Analyst Lee Branscome agreed, saying Suggs was “the superior prospect,” but added that he was very high on Barnes. The Raptors already had several forwards with similar size and skill. Barnes is a superior passer to any forward on the Toronto roster, but at the same time, he doesn’t add much perimeter scoring, something that the team needs.
Key Stats and Facts:
Branscome’s Analysis: Barnes was one of the most impactful freshmen in the entire NCAA this season. He is the latest in a string of fantastic NBA prospects from Leonard Hamilton and Florida State University. Barnes’ calling card is his size mixed with playmaking on both ends of the floor. The freshman is a disruptive and versatile defender, capable of guarding across multiple positions, and allowing lineup flexibility for coaches at the next level. He also has uncommon vision for a player with his physical profile, and is a fantastic passer, particularly on the open floor. Barnes playmaking shines in transition more so than the half-court, and he will have to improve as an isolation creator off the bounce. This season, he ranked at the 43rd percentile for PPP in isolation, including the results of passes. His biggest flaw, by far, is his shooting. He made just 27 percent from 3-point land and 62 percent from the charity stripe as a freshman. As a 6-foot-8, two-way playmaker, Barnes will bring value early in his career, but has some obvious offensive flaws that require attention. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Jalen Suggs | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Though the Magic were already well stocked with guards, the team had to be pleased that Suggs fell to No. 5 overall in the NBA Draft. There is so much to like about Suggs, the best pure point guard in the 2021 draft class and a likely future All-Star. He is an excellent all-round athlete, who also has a high basketball IQ. He is tough and scrappy, and yet graceful with the ball in his hands. Perhaps most importantly, he is a proven winner. Suggs did not disappoint in Summer League action, averaging 15.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game, until he was shut down due to a sprained thumb. It remains to be seen how the Magic will use all of their talented young guards, but the Gonzaga product will be very much in the mix for significant minutes this season. Grade: ★★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Josh Giddey | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The Australian NBL produced a lottery selection for the second consecutive year. Last year, it was LaMelo Ball, the top-ranked prospect on the 2020 HP Draft Board, and this year, it is Josh Giddey, the seventh-ranked prospect on the 2021 HP Draft Board. Both are point guards with great size, and both produced very impressive numbers. Ball was more adept at scoring at roughly the same age, but the rest of his NBL numbers are very comparable to Giddey’s. With the sixth overall pick, most expected the Thunder to select Jonathan Kuminga, especially given the team’s existing talent at guard. However, it’s easy to justify the selection of Giddey over Kuminga based on the two players’ first season as a pro. Additionally, Oklahoma City has since bought out Kemba Walker’s contract, making the former All-Star a free agent, and freeing up significant minutes for both Giddey and Theo Maledon. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Jonathan Kuminga | |||||||||||||||||||||
| A consensus five-star recruit out of high school, Kuminga decided to take his talents to the G League, but his performance with Ignite did not help his draft stock. In early February, he was considered a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. He fell out of contention for the top spot by the end of March, and he slid to the seventh overall pick in the draft, which likely pleased the Warriors. Golden State not only selected a young player with a great deal of upside, but also added needed size and athleticism to its frontcourt. With Ignite, a lack of efficiency was a big issue for Kuminga, and that trend continued in the Summer League, indicating that he is unlikely to be a major contributor as a rookie. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Franz Wagner | |||||||||||||||||||||
| This was a very safe pick by Orlando because Wagner does not have any huge flaws. The 19-year-old is a 6-foot-9, versatile, all-around forward, who is highly efficient as a scorer and a passer, and is also a very good defender. The Michigan product is not overly dynamic or explosive on offense, but he has a high IQ, great shot selection, and the ability to score inside and out. Wagner likely has limited upside due to his modest athleticism — a tall 3-and-D starter is a reasonable long-term projection. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Davion Mitchell | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Unlike most, I was not a big fan of this selection, mainly because I did not consider Mitchell to be lottery material — he ranked at No. 21 on the HP Draft Board. He is a tenacious on-ball defender, a good playmaker, and a solid shooter, and is also a high-character, hard-working prospect, who finished second in the Big 12 with a plus-minus rating of 10.1 (16th in DI). However, Mitchell comes with a number of red flags that many “draft experts” conveniently overlooked:
Considering that Kings’ biggest need was a two-way big who could block shots and rebound, the selection of Mitchell looks even more dubious. Fellow HP analyst Clayton Conover was also lukewarm on the pick. Conover’s Analysis: After seeing the value of the Milwaukee Bucks’ top-tier defender, Jrue Holiday, the Sacramento Kings nabbed Baylor’s Davion Mitchell with the ninth overall pick. Nearly 23 years old and six-feet tall, the redshirt junior had the tough task of convincing scouts of his scalability to the NBA. However, he turned heads when leading the charge to Baylor’s first men’s basketball national title and suffocating top-5 pick Jalen Suggs in the championship game. Mitchell had an incredibly efficient season, finishing with a fiery-hot true shooting percentage of 61.9 (best in the Big 12). He also led the conference in assists, with 5.5 per game. His first step is quicker than most guards, allowing him to beat the defense without anything fancy. Oddly enough, the junior had his best three-point shooting season (44.7%) while having his worst season from the free-throw line (64.1%). While there is no doubt that his jumper has been streamlined, he shot better than 33 percent in just one of his three college seasons. His isolation scoring is one aspect of his offense that creates optimism; he ranked at the 79th percentile in ISO, shooting 51.3 percent from the field while contributing 0.99 points per possession. Pick-and-rolls including passes is another area where he excelled, producing 1.049 points per possession (89th percentile). All too often, I have seen Mitchell, the reigning Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year, compared to the Celtics’ Marcus Smart, but I do not believe that the former has the same defensive versatility due to his lack of size. Like Smart, Mitchell does take a lot of charges, seemingly forcing at least three turnovers a game purely from charge calls, some of which he exaggerated, like any smart defensive player. Also similar to Smart, Mitchell is a good ball thief, ranking in the top 10 of the Big 12 for steals per game for two consecutive seasons. The Baylor product is uber aggressive on help defense, often swiping away the ball with both hands before the ball-handler has a clue of what hit them. In the fullcourt, Mitchell made a living hounding the ball from the second the inbound pass took place. Grade: ★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Ziaire Williams | |||||||||||||||||||||
| At this point, the 2021 NBA Draft started to get a little crazy. The Grizzlies acquired this pick from New Orleans as a part of three-team trade. While Williams does potentially fit the profile to fill the Grizzlies’ biggest need — a sharpshooting small forward — he was a very risky selection. A former top-ten recruit, Williams had a disappointing freshman campaign at Stanford. The 19-year-old forward’s season was marred by COVID-19 interruptions and the loss of two close family members. As a result, Williams missed nearly a month of action (a total of seven games), and never quite found his rhythm. Even so, he did flash many of the skills that made him a highly touted recruit, including a solid handle, deep range, a pretty jumper off the bounce, and explosiveness around the rim. Add in the fact that he was the fourth best overall performer in the athletic testing at the NBA Combine, and you can see why Memphis was enamoured with him. Williams ranked 23rd on the HP Draft Board, mainly based on his long-term potential. The Stanford product was up and down in four Summer League games, and I would not expect him to be much of a factor for the Grizzlies for at least a year. Clayton Conover was more bullish on Williams, considering him a late-lottery prospect.
Conover’s Analysis: The highest rated high school prospect in Stanford’s history, Ziaire Williams, projected to land in the middle to late first round, as a chaotic freshman season surrounded him with a bit of mystery. For starters, the Stanford team was not able to stay on campus until early February when COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. On top of months of living in Santa Cruz hotels, Williams was out for a month after suffering a knee injury while bicycling, and this was on top of suffering family losses in that same stretch. It is important to look at him with the full scope of humanity and humility, as he is human like all of us. Offensively, Williams underwhelmed, averaging 10.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 20 games, with shooting splits of .374/.292/.796. That being said, there were moments when he left my jaw dropping to the floor. Once or twice a game, Williams would use a hesitation combined with a crossover or a simple step-back that generated so much space. While he only made less than 30 percent of his three-point attempts, he was able to make deep shots with confidence, and he produced a respectable 0.795 points per possession with off-dribble jumpers (53rd percentile). Overall, he still has trouble creating shots for himself, often needing a bigger body to set a screen and create space. What is unique about Williams is that the majority of his possessions this season took place as a pick-and-roll ball handler. During standard pick-and-roll situations, he typically dribbled off of the pick into a jumper, where ranked at the 73rd percentile, knocking down 40.9 percent of those shots. In a season of mixed results, he also did well passing out of pick-and-roll situations, ranking at the 55th percentile with 0.984 derived points per possession (the results of his passes). Finishing inside is an area where he has to significantly improve — he has a very lanky frame that needs more muscle. On the opposite end of the court, Williams did well hounding opponents with his ability to quickly open up his hips. While he is only 188 pounds, he knows how to maximize his body by consistently keeping high hands and communicating to his teammates. However, if he ever wants to ever guard bigger wings, he will need to add at least fifteen pounds. As a pro, I believe that he will be a net-positive defender, as he was not put in ideal situations at Stanford, where he ranked at the 58th percentile for PPP allowed. Grade: ★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | James Bouknight | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Bouknight was one of the top pure scorers in this draft class. He excels as a rim attacker, and is excellent in isolation, featuring a very dynamic overall offensive game. Hampered by injuries for the second consecutive year, the sophomore did not qualify to be among the official Big East leaders this season, but unofficially, he ranked second in the conference for points per game with 18.7. The main concerns with Bouknight are that he doesn’t do a good job of involving his teammates (passing), and he’s an average defender. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Joshua Primo | |||||||||||||||||||||
| When I spoke to Primo at the NBA Combine, he wasn’t sure that he would stay in the draft, but less than a week later, he announced that he would not be returning to Alabama. The youngest prospect in the entire 2021 draft class, the freshman wing has plenty of upside, but his performance on the court in college showed that he has a long way to go. With the Crimson Tide, he proved to be a very good 3-and-D player, but didn’t provide much else. As such, I considered Primo to be a late first-rounder or an early second-rounder, but the Spurs had different thoughts, which undoubtedly were based on his long-term potential.
Bobby Zeffero’s Analysis: Josh Primo was the youngest player in this year’s NBA Draft. He’s an elite catch-and-shoot prospect, who also has creative ways to finish at the rim, including floaters and off-hand runners. He’s not an elite athlete, but he carries some defensive upside with him. Primo is an excellent shooter, who shot 38.1 percent from deep and ranked at the 96th percentile on all half-court jump shots (1.253 PPP) this past season. With catch-and-shoot attempts, he ranked at the 92nd percentile (1.329 PPP), and was efficient whether he was covered or open. On limited attempts (15), he was also effective on off-dribble jumpers, ranking at the 77th percentile for PPP. Primo did not do much else on offense other than catch and shoot, which accounted for 52 percent of his halfcourt possessions. Jumpers accounted for 58 percent of all of his shots, and 96 percent of his jumpers were 3-point attempts. Breaking down his offense by play type, he ranked at the 93rd percentile for PPP on spot-ups, but via transition, the pick-and-roll, and isolation, he ranked at the 26th percentile or lower. Including the results of passes, he was even worse, ranking at the 2nd percentile in ISO and at the 7th percentile as a P&R handler. Playing with an excellent supporting cast, Primo ranked at the 82nd percentile for PPP allowed, but he didn’t produce many impact plays, averaging just 1.6 combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes. He mostly struggled to stop jump shooters in the half court, which had more to do with awareness and experience than effort and athleticism. Grade: ★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Chris Duarte | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The 13th pick greatly contrasted to the 12th. Duarte was not only one of the older prospects in this draft class, but also one of the safer picks. The 24-year-old Oregon Duck is an all-around talent with no major flaws in his game. He should be a significant contributor for the Pacers as a rookie, and eventually be a very impactful starter. Duarte was one of the more productive players in Summer League. He averaged 18.2 points per game while making 48.3 percent of his 3-point attempts. In hindsight, he probably should have been 5-to-10 spots higher on the HP Draft Board, but even so, he would have remained out of the lottery range. Our concern was that his upside was very limited due to his age, and ultimately, the Pacers may regret passing over younger options with greater potential. Grade: ★★★★ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | Moses Moody | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Lacking promising depth, the Warriors addressed the forward spot with Jonathan Kuminga at No. 7, and the wing spot with this selection. A high-floor, low-ceiling type of prospect, Moody should fit very nicely into the Golden State system as a 3-and-D player, and he has the potential to be a highly consistent, knockdown shooter from deep. Grade: ★★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | Corey Kispert | |||||||||||||||||||||
| The Wizards addressed one of their biggest weaknesses with this pick — shooting. Kispert, a 41 percent career 3-point shooter at Gonzaga, is not a dynamic ball handler; instead, he excels with off-ball movement to create shots. Nearly all of his offense is derived, and it can be easily argued that he was a product of the system — as Gonzaga improved as a team, he improved as a player. I am also not sold on his shooting mechanics, though that part of his game should not be too difficult to improve. In hindsight, I believe that Kispert was ranked a bit too high on the HP Draft Board; instead of being 19th overall, he should have been in the mid-to-late twenties. His ability to shoot will likely be good enough for a long NBA career, and if the 22-year-old can improve in other areas, mainly passing and defense, he could develop into a solid starter. Grade: ★★★☆ | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Sources, Credits, and Acknowledgements
Stats used in our scouting reports come from Synergy Sports Technology, RealGM.com, and Sports-Reference.com. Other outside sources are noted with links to the source. Click here to see the statistical abbreviation key.
