Ahead of opening night in Denver, a panel of Hoops Prospects analysts once again put their prediction skills to the test in the annual Hoops Prospects NBA Fearless Forecast. The panel voted on the seedings of each conference, conference and league champions, and winners of every major award.
The panel consisted of:
| Name | Title |
| Jackson Inagi | Contributor, Hoops Prospects |
| Nazmul Noyim | Intern, Hoops Prospects |
| Drew Barton | Senior Analyst, Hoops Prospects |
| Zach Wilhelm | Intern, Hoops Prospects |
| Tyler Hagedorn | Former NBA/G League Player |
| Rich Harris | Managing Director, Hoops Prospects |
| Peter Howarth | Contributor, Hoops Prospects |
| Clifton Dixon | Recruiting Analyst/Scout at LouisianaHoops.com and Intern at Hoops Prospects |
| Cam Riehl | Senior Analyst, Hoops Prospects |
In addition to the results below, you can listen to analysis of the voting on the latest episode of HPP, including over-under total wins predictions for all 30 teams.
EASTERN CONFERENCE VOTING
number indicates projected finish in conference standings
| Team | JI | NN | DB | ZW | TH | RH | PH | CD | CR | Total |
| MIL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 131 |
| BOS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 130 |
| CLE | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 107 |
| PHI | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 97 |
| NYK | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 93 |
| MIA | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 87 |
| ATL | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 86 |
| IND | 9 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 68 |
| BKN | 8 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 58 |
| CHI | 10 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 55 |
| TOR | 11 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 49 |
| ORL | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 43 |
| CHA | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 26 |
| DET | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 25 |
| WAS | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 25 |
RESULTS
points in parentheses are calculated in reverse order of prediction, with 15 for 1st place and 1 for 15th place
- Milwaukee Bucks (131)
- Boston Celtics (130)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (107)
- Philadelphia 76ers (97)
- New York Knicks (93)
- Miami Heat (87)
- Atlanta Hawks (86)
- Indiana Pacers (68)
- Brooklyn Nets (58)
- Chicago Bulls (55)
- Toronto Raptors (49)
- Orlando Magic (43)
- Charlotte Hornets (26)
- Tie: Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards (25)
OUTLOOK
Our panel has locked-in on the revamped Bucks and Celtics to lead the Eastern Conference. With Damian Lillard joining Giannis Antetokounpo in Milwaukee and Boston adding a pair of All-Stars in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to their All-NBA duo in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, it’s championship-level expectations for both teams.
The parity widens for the rest of the conference, with the Cavaliers, Knicks, Hawks, Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, and Hornets having anywhere from six-to-nine point gaps in voting placement from analyst to analyst. Had this voting occurred before the Lillard sweepstakes came to a close, there likely would be more parity throughout the voting, but this goes to show the value of how Milwaukee and Boston vaulted above the rest of the East with their late offseason moves.
The one team outside of the top-two that the panel agreed most on was Detroit, which gathered votes in the 12-15 range only. The return of 2021 No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham and the selection of 2023 No. 5 overall Ausar Thompson wasn’t enough in the eyes of the panel, putting them in line with the Wizards to secure the No. 1 overall pick once again in 2024. It should be noted that Rich Harris has gone on record in support of Detroit, saying that the Pistons should be in the mix for the play-in games this year and will be solidly in the playoffs next year.
WESTERN CONFERENCE VOTING
number indicates projected finish in conference standings
| Team | JI | NN | DB | ZW | TH | RH | PH | CD | CR | Total |
| DEN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 131 |
| PHX | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 118 |
| LAL | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 114 |
| GSW | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 97 |
| MEM | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 91 |
| SAC | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 88 |
| LAC | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 75 |
| DAL | 9 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 74 |
| OKC | 8 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 63 |
| MIN | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 62 |
| NOP | 11 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 56 |
| UTA | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 37 |
| HOU | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 31 |
| SA | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
| POR | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 20 |
RESULTS
points in parentheses are calculated in reverse order of prediction, with 15 for 1st place and 1 for 15th place
- Denver Nuggets (131)
- Phoenix Suns (118)
- Los Angeles Lakers (114)
- Golden State Warriors (97)
- Memphis Grizzlies (91)
- Sacramento Kings (88)
- Los Angeles Clippers (75)
- Dallas Mavericks (74)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (63)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (62)
- New Orleans Pelicans (56)
- Utah Jazz (37)
- Houston Rockets (31)
- San Antonio Spurs (23)
- Portland Trail Blazers (20)
OUTLOOK
Our panel is bullish on the reigning-champion Nuggets to run it back, joining Milwaukee and Boston as the only teams to receive exclusively first and second-place votes. The Suns and Lakers are still viewed favorably by the panel, with votes ranging from first to sixth for both teams, but Denver looks to lead the West for their second straight year.
The top mirrors the bottom in the West, as our panel (virtually) agreed on the bottom-four teams with only three top-10 votes between them. The import of Victor Wembanyama to the Spurs and the reload of the Rockets hasn’t vaulted either team to play-in territory, according to the collective.
The lone first-place vote outside the top-three belongs to the Dallas Mavericks, who re-signed Kyrie Irving in addition to bringing in Seth Curry and Grant Williams to assist Luka Doncic. They ultimately finished 8th in our predictions and received votes as low as 11th, so the divisiveness of the Doncic-Irving pairing will be one to monitor this year.
PLAYOFF VOTING
bold indicates selection of panel pick
| Analyst | East Champ | West Champ | NBA Champ |
| JI | Boston | Denver | Denver |
| NN | Boston | LA Lakers | Boston |
| DB | Milwaukee | Denver | Milwaukee |
| ZW | Milwaukee | LA Lakers | LA Lakers |
| TH | Milwaukee | LA Lakers | LA Lakers |
| RH | Boston | Sacramento | Boston |
| PH | Boston | Phoenix | Boston |
| CD | Milwaukee | LA Lakers | LA Lakers |
| CR | Boston | Denver | Denver |
RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
- Boston Celtics (5)
- Milwaukee Bucks (4)
WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
- Los Angeles Lakers (4)
- Denver Nuggets (3)
- Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns (1)
NBA CHAMPIONS
- Tie: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers (3)
- Denver Nuggets (2)
- Milwaukee Bucks (1)
OUTLOOK
Despite coming in at third in our West predictions, the Lakers are the consensus favorite to come out of the conference, and are tied with the Celtics to win it all. LA brought back breakout wings Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura over the offseason, and brought in Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, and Cam Reddish to support the Lakers’ quest for their second title in the LeBron-era.
The voters’ playoff predictions in the East were more in line with the regular-season predictions. Boston and Milwaukee are darlings of the conference, being the only two teams predicted to win the East. Our panel has ultimately given the Celtics the edge, with one more vote to win the East and two more to win the Larry O’Brien trophy. Milwaukee won the 2021 NBA title and Boston lost in the 2022 Finals, so our panel favors the more recent success.
INDIVIDUAL AWARDS VOTING
bold indicates selection of panel pick
| Analyst | MVP | DPOY | MIP | 6MOY | ROY | COY |
| JI | Jokic | Mobley | Cunningham | White | Wembanyama | Malone |
| NN | Jokic | Davis | Christie | Mathurin | Wembanyama | Daigneault |
| DB | Jokic | Mobley | Bridges | White | Holmgren | Daigneault |
| ZW | Giannis | Adebayo | Christie | Clarkson | Wembanyama | Ham |
| TH | Durant | Giannis | Aldama | Love | Henderson | Ham |
| RH | Jokic | Mobley | Wagner | Eason | Holmgren | Udoka |
| PH | Doncic | Giannis | Cunningham | Gordon | Miller | Mazzulla |
| CD | Tatum | Butler | Achiuwa | Achiuwa | Bates | Snyder |
| CR | Giannis | Bridges | Reaves | Eason | Wembanyama | Daigneault |
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
- Nikola Jokic, Denver (4)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee (2)
- Kevin Durant, Phoenix; Luka Doncic, Dallas; Jayson Tatum, Boston (1)
Both Antetokounmpo and Jokic are jockeying to become only the second active player to win three MVPs (along with LeBron James), but our panel likes Jokic to win his third award in four years. Some around the league believe Denver and Jokic cruised in the second half of last season, giving Joel Embiid the chance to take the trophy from him; the “Joker” is still the favorite, nonetheless.
The last two unique winners, Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both won in consecutive years. Embiid’s omission from our panel indicates the possible struggles he and Philadelphia could face if James Harden’s absence and trade request drag on well into the regular season. Harden won the award following the 2017-18 season as a member of the Houston Rockets.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
- Evan Mobley, Cleveland (3)
- Antetokounmpo (2)
- Anthony Davis, Los Angeles; Bam Adebayo, Miami; Jimmy Butler, Miami; Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn (1)
There have been only two guards who have won the award in the last 28 seasons: Gary Payton in 1996 and Marcus Smart in 2022. Our panel followed the trend and placed no votes on a guard to win DPOY, settling on Cleveland’s Evan Mobley, who finished third behind Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brook Lopez last season. Overall, the history of the award leans towards dominant big men, so both Mobley and Antetokounmpo (who won in 2020) are solid selections.
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER
- Tie: Cade Cunningham, Detroit; Max Christie, Los Angeles (2)
- Santi Aldama, Memphis; Franz Wagner, Orlando; Precious Achiuwa, Toronto; Austin Reaves, Los Angeles; Bridges (1)
Our panel had a difficult time coming to a conclusion on Most Improved, due to the subjectivity of its descriptor and the influence a team’s offseason moves can have on it. Cunningham fits the bill of a high lottery pick who’s expected to take a leap following a lost 2022-23 season, in the mold of past winners Ja Morant, Brandon Ingram, and Victor Oladipo, among others. Christie likely tallied some votes here due to his national exposure as a Laker, but has a chance to be a valuable two-way guard behind Austin Reaves, and looks to improve on his 3.1 points per game in his rookie season.
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
- Tie: Derrick White, Boston; Tari Eason, Houston (2)
- Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana; Jordan Clarkson, Utah; Kevin Love, Miami; Eric Gordon, Phoenix; Bruce Brown, Indiana; Achiuwa (1)
Following the acquisition of Jrue Holiday days before Media Day, Boston’s starting lineup still isn’t set in stone, with the door open for playoff hero Derrick White to operate as their sixth man. Boston sent last year’s Sixth Man winner, Malcolm Brogdon, in the package to Portland that netted them Holiday. Eason will ease into the season following a stress fracture in his left leg, following a rookie campaign in which he appeared in all 82 regular season games. He’ll play behind recently-acquired Dillon Brooks and fellow sophomore Jabari Smith Jr. in the Houston frontcourt, and looks to make his mark with tough defense and decent three-point shooting at his 6-8 size.
Like Most Improved, there was little consensus on this award, one that has historically gone to spark plug scorers that can fill up the bucket quickly. Mathurin, Clarkson, Love, and Gordon fit that mold, while Brown and Achiuwa lean more towards being “super” reserves that could fit in starting lineups across the league. Brown left his spot in the champion Denver rotation to operate in Indiana, where he could see action anywhere between the one and four spots.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio (4)
- Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City (2)
- Scoot Henderson, Portland; Brandon Miller, Charlotte; Emoni Bates, Cleveland (1)
22 number-one overall picks have won Rookie of the Year – the most of any draft position – leading credence to our panel’s choice of Victor Wembanyama to take home the award. He was a slam dunk to be the No. 1 pick for the better part of a year and dominated in preseason play, so he certainly carries momentum heading into the season.
Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren also received multiple votes, potentially setting up a similar race to the 2018 Rookie of the Year vote, where Ben Simmons, who missed the prior season due to injury, won the award over “true rookie” Donovan Mitchell. Holmgren looks to play the role of Simmons this year, as he missed the 2022-23 season due to a Lisfranc injury. He’s set to start for a Thunder team in pursuit of the playoffs, which could give him the edge over Wembanyama.
COACH OF THE YEAR
- Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City (3)
- Darvin Ham, Los Angeles (2)
- Michael Malone, Denver; Ime Udoka, Houston; Joe Mazzulla, Boston; Quin Snyder, Atlanta (1)
You could’ve guessed the leading candidates for this award following the results of the others, as our panel is buying what the Thunder and Lakers are selling. OKC last won the award in 2010 with Scott Brooks, whereas LA last took it home with Del Harris at the helm in 1995. Overall, most votes lie with teams expected to finish near the top of their conferences, including Boston and Denver. The lone vote for a coach of a team expected to be outside of the play-in conversation went to Houston’s Ime Udoka, who turned a disappointing Boston season into a Finals appearance in 2022, and looks to improve upon Houston’s 22-win season, tied for the second worst in the league last year.
