Draft Stock Watch

The first month of the college season is in the books, and per usual, there have been plenty of surprises.  Many of the projected lottery picks for the 2022 NBA Draft have underwhelmed, while numerous unheralded prospects have put themselves on the radar.  Here’s a quick look at who is hot and who is not.  

Most Valuable Overall Contributors

Overall metrics exist for a reason, and as you see, the chart below features many of the prospects who improved their draft stock in November.  The chart shows the 32 players in Division I who currently have a box-score plus-minus of at least 11, more than one win share, and a player efficiency rating greater than 25.  Of course, stats never tell the full story, which is why we use the eye test.  Some visually and intuitively impressive players did not meet the stringent criteria for this list, particularly freshmen, including Duke’s Trevor Keels, Michigan’s Moussa Diabate, Iowa State’s Tyrese Hunter, and Taran Armstrong of Cal Baptist.  

All but two players on this list, Tylor Perry and Nick Muszynski, are currently ranked on HP’s Draft Board.  

Stock Rising

We put together a highlight video of many of the prospects who dramatically improved their draft stock in November.  

Five-stars Sliding

Top-20, one-and-done recruits typically have the advantage of getting the benefit of the doubt in the NBA Draft, meaning that they will be drafted as long as they don’t have a completely disastrous freshman season.  However, these high-upside youngsters are not immune to slipping out of the lottery, and could even fall to the second round.  Some recent examples include Bol Bol, Kevin Porter, and Nassir Little.

This season’s crop of five-stars that are off to a rough start include G League Ignite guard Jaden Hardy, Milwaukee wing Patrick Baldwin Jr., UCLA forward Peyton Watson, Michigan wing Caleb Houstan, Duke wing A.J. Griffin, Kentucky forward Daimion Collins, and Michigan State wing Max Christie.  Out of that group, only Griffin and Collins are shooting better than 35 percent from the floor, but both freshmen are playing less than 15 minutes per game.  Griffin is coming off a serious knee injury and playing behind two likely first-round picks (Wendell Moore and Trevor Keels), so he has understandably been limited.  Collins, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same issues, but history tells us that UK coach John Calipari often uses perplexing rotations.  

The most worrisome prospect in this group is Baldwin, who plays for a bad team that features a weak schedule.  He has been limited to just four games due to an ankle injury, and his one opportunity to show that he can play with the “big boys” was a disaster (an 81-45 loss at Florida in front of 30-plus NBA scouts).  I have a feeling that Baldwin will be one of the most mysterious prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft, assuming that he leaves college.  

Slowly Slipping

Other talented prospects who are not meeting expectations include:

• Marcus Bagley (Arizona State) is missing significant action due to injuries for the second straight season. 
• Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall) is not playing poorly, but he has not done enough to earn big minutes (22.3 MPG) for a deep Seton Hall team.
• Marcus Carr (Texas), a dynamic scoring guard, has yet to find his groove with the Longhorns, making just 39.3 percent from the floor and averaging less than nine points per game.  
• Andre Curbelo (Illinois) is currently injured, and the sophomore has been a walking turnover this season, averaging four TOs per game.
• Josiah James (Tennessee), who is also currently injured, struggled mightily in the first three games of the season, making just 4 of 22 shots (18.2 percent).
• Earl Timberlake (Memphis), a sturdy combo guard, is shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor and playing just 15.9 minutes per game, while Coach Penny Hardaway tries to figure out his rotation.
• Will Richardson (Oregon) is having a solid season in general, but the senior guard has had some dreadful games against better competition.

Most Efficient Scorers

Currently, there are 32 DI players with a FG% of at least 50, a 3P% of at least 40, and a FT% of at least 75 that have scored at least 100 points, are averaging more than 13 points per game, and are averaging more than 1.1 points per possession. 

Most Efficient Floor Generals

Currently, there are just 16 DI players who have played at least 100 minutes, are averaging at least three assists per game, have an assist percentage of at least 35, have a turnover percentage less than 25, and are averaging greater than 1.2 points plus assists per possession. 

Dominating in the Paint

Currently, there are just 18 players in Division I who have played at least 100 minutes and have an effective FG% greater than 52, a rebounding percentage greater than 17, and a block percentage greater than nine. 

Most Efficient Jump Shooters

There are currently 36 shooters in DI who have played at least 100 minutes, are making at least 40 percent of their attempts from deep, averaging at least three 3-pointers per game, and averaging more than 1.2 points per possession on half-court jumpers.  Only four of the 36 sharpshooters are currently on the HP Draft Board, partially because these stats can be somewhat misleading.  For example, the data doesn’t say anything about the difficulty of the shots (guarded/unguarded, off the dribble/off the catch, and so on).  

Sources, Credits, and Acknowledgements  

Stats used in our scouting reports come from Synergy Sports Technology, RealGM.com, and Sports-Reference.com.  Other outside sources are noted with links to the source.  Click here to see HP’s statistical abbreviation key.

Special thanks to Connor Ullathorne for producing “Stock Rising.”