NCAA Bracket Tips & Predictions

Need some last-minute help with your bracket?  Hoops Prospects has you covered.  In this article, you’ll find our staff predictions, sleeper picks, the most likely upsets, key team stats, a tourney cheat sheet, and a list of players to watch.  

On Tuesday, March 14, the Hoops Prospects Podcast (HPP) crew picked a collective bracket for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, analyzing all of the matchups until they arrived at an eventual champion.  Also, Drew Barton, Ayad Bunni, Jake Copestick, and myself made their individual Final Four selections and picked a sleeper team in each region.  Below is the HPP Bracket episode, the full collective bracket (PDF), a summary of our individual picks, and more. And yes, the full collective bracket is in the name of our mascot, Mookie, my dog.

Staff Picks 

Surprisingly, no one picked the top overall seed, Alabama, to win it all, expecting the team’s off-court issues to eventually take a toll.   

Drew BartonAyad BunniJake CopestickRich HarrisCollective Bracket
ChampionTexasHoustonHoustonUConnUConn
Runner-upAlabamaCreightonAlabamaAlabamaAlabama
South Final FourAlabamaCreightonAlabamaAlabamaAlabama
East Final FourMarquettePurdueDukeMarquetteDuke
Midwest Final FourTexasHoustonHoustonTexasTexas
West Final FourGonzagaGonzagaKansasUConnUConn
South SleeperFurmanMissouriFurmanMissouriFurman
East SleeperMemphisOral RobertsMemphisMemphisMemphis
Midwest SleeperTexas A&MColgateDrakePenn StateTexas A&M
West SleeperIllinoisBoise StateArkansasArkansasArkansas

Full Collective Bracket (PDF)

Upset Alert

If you’re looking for upsets, here is my list of best bets in order of preference.

  1. Boise State (10) over Northwestern (7)
  2. Pittsburgh (11) over Iowa State (6)
  3. Providence (11) over Kentucky (6)
  4. Penn State (10) over Texas A&M (7)
  5. Utah State (10) over Missouri (7)
  6. Drake (12) over Miami (5)
  7. Furman (13) over Virginia (4)
  8. Kent State (13) over Indiana (4)
  9. VCU (12) over Saint Mary’s (5)

Cinderella 

If you’re looking for a high seed to sneak into the Final Four, I would suggest the Memphis Tigers.  The Tigers not only won the AAC Championship by soundly defeating No. 2 ranked Houston on Sunday, but they also gave the Cougars everything they wanted in two close regular-season losses.  Additionally, Memphis played a fairly tough out-of-conference schedule that included wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and VCU plus a close loss at Alabama.  

Cheat Sheet

Over the years, I have studied upsets in the tourney, which led me to developing a rating metric called the Upset Index (UPI).  This metric emphasizes the statistics that I have found to be most influential in games where higher seeds beat lower seeds.  The formula includes margin of victory, 3-point shooting, turnover margin, rebounding margin, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and strength of schedule.  Below are the 68 teams in the tournament ranked by UPI.  The chart also includes the Sagarin Rankings and the wins and losses vs. top-50 teams via Sagarin.  

Key Terms:

  • MOV — Margin of Victory
  • 3P PCTL — 3-point Shooting Percentile among all DI teams
  • FT PCTL — Free-throw Shooting Percentile among all DI teams
  • REBM PCTL — Rebounding Margin Percentile among all DI teams
  • TOVM PCTL — Turnover Margin Percentile among all DI teams
  • OFF EFF — Offensive Efficiency Percentile among all DI teams
  • DEF EFF — Defensive Efficiency Percentile among all DI teams
  • SOS — Strength of Schedule via Sagarin
  • UPI — Upset Index
  • SAG — Sagarin Rating
  • Avg Rating — Average of UPI and SAG
RankSchoolWLT50 WT50 LPTSOpp PTSMOV3P PCTLFT PCTLREBM PCTLTOVM PCTLOFF EFFDEF EFFSOSUPISAGAvg Rating
1Texas26815877.967.410.545.087.634.597.885.990.181.994.090.592.3
2Baylor2210121077.270.36.989.884.563.569.687.840.682.393.187.490.2
3UConn25810678.765.213.574.985.699.753.684.385.479.693.090.191.5
4Gonzaga2756487.572.914.697.232.392.392.8100.044.277.592.490.591.5
5Kansas27717774.967.97.052.249.252.283.172.185.683.391.790.090.9
6Arizona28610282.771.511.295.340.195.923.895.678.278.991.489.990.6
7UCLA2957573.960.313.656.655.282.699.468.098.679.291.391.291.2
8Marquette28610479.970.69.358.354.48.899.297.270.779.891.087.589.3
9Xavier25910781.474.17.399.245.394.231.593.433.480.490.886.588.6
10Houston3138275.056.518.553.351.998.197.289.0100.076.190.891.991.3
11Miami (FL)2576479.472.17.385.195.972.771.897.027.677.790.084.287.1
12Memphis2686379.871.97.971.083.150.383.179.687.678.489.686.588.0
13Purdue29517573.162.710.424.078.5100.026.281.872.781.089.489.289.3
14Creighton21127976.668.58.176.293.184.015.791.768.280.889.487.688.5
15Alabama29510482.268.513.742.360.898.38.073.598.981.389.392.290.8
16Indiana2211121175.068.56.588.742.365.736.783.774.381.388.986.287.5
17Missouri2496779.574.64.978.289.20.8100.096.442.078.788.482.485.4
18Saint Mary’s (CA)2572371.460.111.389.824.097.880.978.283.776.888.386.487.4
19Utah State2580378.669.78.998.991.785.923.897.554.476.588.184.186.1
20Virginia2577467.860.37.566.932.342.595.382.677.178.487.885.186.4
21San Diego State2664372.163.68.566.966.689.274.066.981.877.587.785.286.4
22Florida Atlantic2930078.865.013.889.847.595.065.793.193.472.686.783.785.2
23Drake2670075.363.911.491.293.977.678.795.387.072.286.681.984.2
24Boise State2393372.264.37.982.668.579.062.479.084.576.886.581.984.2
25West Virginia191481376.371.05.358.375.770.478.769.950.382.486.485.986.2
26Duke2689572.563.98.640.194.298.923.866.380.178.986.287.386.7
27Kansas State23910775.569.06.547.085.666.356.956.189.580.486.185.385.7
28Penn State221311872.368.43.996.471.819.339.098.128.780.686.083.985.0
29NC State23103578.270.87.459.753.657.595.688.450.877.786.083.384.6
30Iowa191311880.274.45.851.472.757.291.290.318.580.785.784.985.3
31Texas A&M2596473.266.27.028.289.890.181.559.182.678.685.686.185.9
32Michigan State1912111170.267.42.899.290.976.021.866.047.282.285.484.985.2
33Tennessee23107571.858.013.829.645.397.589.245.399.779.585.289.387.3
34Providence21115878.171.36.863.380.996.144.281.538.178.385.284.184.6
35Maryland211281070.463.27.231.572.764.174.375.178.779.885.085.585.2
36Pittsburgh22116676.170.55.676.290.669.350.692.341.477.284.981.583.2
37Nevada21102472.666.95.755.299.240.987.083.467.476.583.579.281.4
38Oral Roberts2640384.270.114.186.795.946.794.299.480.768.983.580.582.0
39Kentucky21116675.168.07.168.835.199.438.464.649.479.482.986.084.5
40TCU211211975.267.97.35.532.351.993.649.790.980.981.686.083.8
41Iowa State1913111168.462.85.645.012.479.894.825.783.482.981.584.883.1
42Iona2770076.465.011.476.265.553.695.979.895.369.581.279.780.4
43USC22102572.867.35.553.378.737.044.262.489.878.181.184.182.6
44Kent State2660276.665.710.940.159.749.798.372.796.171.781.181.181.1
45Furman2470282.171.210.956.675.768.885.698.936.570.280.879.580.2
46Louisiana2370178.069.88.293.918.096.150.682.061.371.780.677.479.0
47Charleston3030180.867.413.437.375.797.281.876.591.769.080.580.780.6
48VCU2770171.462.98.556.627.946.791.455.597.573.780.583.582.0
49Arkansas20134974.467.47.013.821.869.374.358.086.780.179.885.882.8
50Northwestern211181067.762.55.218.587.037.098.127.190.379.979.683.981.7
51UC Santa Barbara2570072.265.66.666.963.360.568.092.866.969.679.376.477.8
52Grand Canyon21110075.366.88.595.947.579.017.486.576.571.779.276.077.6
53Montana State2390274.266.67.642.389.869.184.587.369.670.179.174.776.9
54Illinois201271174.767.07.76.914.988.151.952.885.179.978.585.381.9
55Colgate2580178.669.09.6100.06.971.585.499.245.367.278.176.177.1
56Kennesaw State2380375.368.96.485.18.655.085.170.776.869.777.373.175.2
57Auburn201231072.767.15.610.834.052.263.543.191.280.177.285.381.3
58Vermont22100273.066.66.474.927.930.186.296.734.369.876.676.776.7
59UNC Asheville2570175.068.66.498.125.752.221.081.285.967.975.972.874.4
60Princeton1980076.068.67.452.242.396.79.974.963.570.674.976.375.6
61Texas A&M-CC19100280.472.57.985.198.682.387.376.858.864.174.270.272.2
62Mississippi State21124765.961.04.90.04.784.581.89.997.278.573.182.377.7
63Arizona State22126770.367.72.610.820.722.188.117.495.079.172.681.076.8
64Northern Kentucky20121168.263.64.661.623.530.196.739.880.969.271.972.672.2
65Howard19120275.571.93.693.145.372.127.935.973.867.270.469.069.7
66Fairleigh Dickinson17150077.874.92.955.282.350.696.475.413.363.369.763.966.8
67SE Missouri State17160177.776.01.726.246.733.178.753.351.966.268.066.767.4
68Texas Southern12200469.471.6-2.20.68.064.626.53.376.267.661.865.363.6

Download PDF version of Cheat Sheet

Players to Watch

Lastly, if you play fantasy college basketball or you’re just interested in NBA Draft prospects, keep an eye on these unheralded stars.

Colby JonesWXavier
Baylor ScheiermanWCreighton
Jalen PickettCGPenn State
Anton WatsonFGonzaga
Kendric DavisPGMemphis
Drew PemberPFUNC-Asheville
Jordan MillerSFMiami (FL)
Tyler KolekPGMarquette
Kobe BrownFMissouri
Markquis NowellPGKansas State
Max AbmasPGOral Roberts
Devin CarterCGProvidence
Tucker DeVriesWDrake
Aidan MahaneyCGSaint Mary’s
Jalen SlawsonFFurman
Ace BaldwinPGVCU
Chase AudigeWNorthwestern
Jamarius BurtonCGPittsburgh
Tyson DegenhartFBoise State
Ajay MitchellPGUC Santa Barbara

Author

  • Richard C. Harris

    Richard has worked as a sports writer/editor/scout/analyst since 1998. He has been credentialed for a variety of special events and games by the NBA, the NFL, the G League, and numerous college athletic programs and conferences. He has contributed to various magazines, radio shows, and a number of other sites, including ESPN.com, SI.com, and USAToday.com. Richard is the former CEO of FantasyFootballExperts.com and a former member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). An active member of the US Basketball Writers Association (USBWA), Rich is currently the Managing Director at Hoops Prospects, a site that specializes in evaluating potential pro basketball talent. Follow on Twitter @HoopsProspects.

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