The draft took place less than a month ago, and this season’s rookies will be immediately thrown into the fire. This draft class will be asked to perform without the benefit of Summer League play, an orientation period, and training time in the gym and weight room. To make matters worse, training camp will last just a couple of weeks and feature only a few preseason games.
In days leading up to the start of the 2020-21 NBA regular season, I will be discussing the short- and long-term outlook for all 60 picks in the 2020 NBA Draft, starting with the top overall selection. I will also add my thoughts on the merit of each selection in terms of fit and value.
Enjoy and happy holidays.
1. Anthony Edwards (W)
- Team: Georgia
- Age: 19.4
- Height: 6-5
- Weight: 225
- Wingspan: 6-9
- Vertical: 42 inches (max)
I was not a big fan of this selection. Edwards was the No. 3 prospect on the Hoops Prospects Draft Board, and he was only that high due to his terrific upside. He truly was a high-risk, high-reward selection. The reward will come if he can consistently make use of his great combination of athleticism, skill, and strength. On the other hand, it’s not difficult to imagine Edwards turning out to be a huge bust due to his immaturity, poor attitude, and inconsistent effort. Leading up to the draft, the Georgia product made some eyebrow-raising statements that demonstrated a lack of interest in basketball, saying that he’d prefer to play in the NFL and that he doesn’t enjoying watching hoops. Personally, I would never use the first-overall selection on a player who made declarations like this, no matter how talented he was.
The Timberwolves don’t seem to have the same concerns, but then again, they don’t seem to have a plan. By selecting Edwards, they are basically saying that they don’t have a lot of faith in wing Jarrett Culver, the sixth overall pick in 2019, and by re-signing fellow wing Malik Beasley, who recently had some ugly off-court troubles, the team seems to be acknowledging that it doesn’t have a lot of faith in either Culver or Edwards.
A quick look at the Timberwolves’ depth chart shows that the team could clearly use an upgrade at the power forward spot. From an overall statistical standpoint, they were below average both offensively and defensively last season. On the offensive end, they ranked 28th for 3-point percentage (33.6 percent), and on the other end of the court, they ranked 24th for points allowed in the paint. The addition of Edwards, who made less than 30 percent of his three-point attempts at Georgia, is unlikely to help Minnesota in either department, at least not this year.
Read more: Anthony Edwards Scouting Report
2. James Wiseman (C)
- Team: Memphis
- Age: 19.7
- Height: 7-1
- Weight: 240
- Wingspan: 7-6
- Vertical: 34 inches (max)
Before the season-ending injury to shooting guard Klay Thompson, center was the only position where the Warriors did not have a former or potential All-Star, so the Wiseman selection made a lot of sense. Given that the Memphis product played in only three college games, he is a bit of an unknown, but I have seen enough to know that he should be an elite rim protector, rebounder, and rim runner, at a minimum.
The No. 2 prospect on the HP Draft Board, Wiseman is likely to get off to a slow start as a rookie. Not only does he lack experience playing at a high level, but he was also sidelined during most of the shortened preseason due to COVID. The 19-year-old will compete for minutes with veterans Marquese Chriss and Kevon Looney, but in a year or two, I expect Wiseman to emerge as one of the better young centers in the NBA.
Read more: James Wiseman Scouting Report
3. LaMelo Ball (PG)
- Team: Illawarra Hawks
- Age: 19.3
- Height: 6-7
- Weight: 185
- Wingspan: 6-8
- Vertical:
In Charlotte, the biggest pre-draft weakness was the center position. This past season, the club ranked 26th in rebounds, 25th in blocks, 21st for points scored in the paint, and 23rd for points allowed in the paint (all per game). With Wiseman off the board, the Hornets chose the best available player, and Ball adds needed size to the team’s smallish backcourt.
The top-ranked prospect on the HP Draft Board, Ball may not have the most upside in this draft class, but I believe that he is the safest pick, with a very high floor. He had fantastic statistics for a youngster playing in a high-level international league — the Australian NBL — but the sample size was rather small (13 games). Playing 31.3 minutes per night, Ball averaged 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He also had an impressive assist-turnover ratio (A/T) of 2.67 and player efficiency rating (PER) of 18.3.
Even though he just turned 19 years old, Ball already has the look of an NBA floor general, and he does most things with flair. He is confident with the ball in his hands, has an outstanding handle, and has excellent vision and creativity as a passer. He seamlessly crosses over and makes tricky passes at high speeds, and can thread the needle with either hand. The California native has great end-to-end speed with the ball in his hands, and is a threat in transition as both a playmaker and scorer. Though his shot is a bit funky, he’s not shy about shooting. The youngster’s shot selection needs to improve (FG% of 38.9), and he must learn that making the simple play is the best play at times (2.5 turnovers per game). Also, he is not the best finisher around the rim, and he must continue to develop his promising floater game.
Ball features a deadly step-back move and has a quick release on his jumpers, but he made less than 30 percent of his 3-point attempts in the NBL due to inconsistent mechanics and the aforementioned shot selection. In terms of points per possession (PPP) among international players, he was much better when catching and shooting (69th percentile) than shooting off the bounce (34th percentile).
Defensively, Ball can be a liability at times, which is mainly due to inconsistent effort and a lack of awareness. He can be lackadaisical on his defensive rotations, and he often gets caught ball-watching, losing sight of his man. He has quick hands and good anticipation, but he is always looking for the big play (steals), and this strategy can be costly when it fails. He has the tools to be a solid on-ball defender, but his effort and fundamentals need to improve.
Read more: LaMelo Ball Scouting Report
4. Patrick Williams (F)
- Team: Florida State
- Age: 19.3
- Height: 6-8
- Weight: 235
- Wingspan: 7-2
- Vertical: 32 inches standing, 39 max
With the “big three” gone, the Bulls could have gone in a number of directions. The team lacks a top-level floor general, as second-year pro Coby White is a score-first point, making Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes intriguing options. However, the club had been searching for a quality starter a three spot for quite some time, and Williams emerged as the prospect of choice about a week before the draft.
Personally, I would have gone with one of the playmaking guards, but Williams has looked solid in the preseason. One of the youngest prospects in the class, he is a versatile player with an intriguing combination of size, athleticism, and skill. He is capable of playing at either forward spot, possessing the ability to score and defend both inside and out. I am not convinced that he can be a dynamic scorer or an elite perimeter defender at the NBA level, but I do believe that he will be a solid all-around contributor, at a minimum.
Read more: Patrick Williams Scouting Report
5. Isaac Okoro (SF)
- Team: Auburn
- Age: 19.9
- Height: 6-6
- Weight: 225
- Wingspan: 6-9
- Vertical:
The value of the eye test was never more apparent to those who scouted Okoro this past season. If the Auburn product was strictly drafted based on stats and analytics, he may not have been a lottery pick. However, when watching him, it was clear to me that he not only had a huge upside but also was a prototypical player for today’s NBA. He has the potential to be an elite defensive stopper and a three-level scorer.
Heading into the draft, the Cavaliers were well stocked with young point guards, and had plenty of capable veteran bigs. One could make the argument that the lead guard position is far from settled because both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland have yet to prove to be great facilitators, and Dante Exum has never been able to stay healthy. At the wing spots, the situation was more precarious. Cedi Osman is a solid player but more of a reserve type, Kevin Porter continues have personal and off-court issues, and fellow second-year pro Dylan Windler has yet to see regular-season action due to injuries.
With the fifth overall pick, the Cavs were looking for a player to improve their defense, which ranked dead last in the league for efficiency last season. Okoro should fit the bill and immediately start at one of the wing spots. If the preseason is any indication, the No. 4 overall player on the HP Draft Board has the inside track on the Rookie of the Year award. In three exhibition contests (all starts), the youngster has played 30.3 minutes per game, averaging 14.3 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.7 steals, while making 61.9 percent of his shots from the floor. In short, Cleveland appears to have found a gem.
Read more: Isaac Okoro Scouting Report
6. Onyeka Okongwu (PF/C)
- Team: USC
- Age: 20.0
- Height: 6-9
- Weight: 245
- Wingspan: 7-1
- Vertical:
This season, the Hawks will feature a revamped roster that has a great deal of young talent, and good depth at every position, with plenty of scoring punch. However, the team’s biggest concern has to be its dreadful defense, which ranked 28th in efficiency last season. The addition of Okongwu and a healthy Clint Capela, who has yet to play a regular-season game for the Hawks, should lead to improvement on the defensive end. However, it’s unlikely the Hawks will want to play both big men at the same time due to their shooting and perimeter defense limitations. Having said that, the team may have been better off drafting forward Deni Avdija, but only time will tell.
Okongwu is undersized for a traditional center but not so much for the modern NBA. He has an excellent combination of size, power, and athleticism. This past season, the 19-year-old started at power forward alongside center Nick Rakocevic at USC, and the freshman was highly productive, ranking in the top 10 of the PAC 12 in numerous categories, including field-goal percentage (61.6), points per game (16.2), rebounds per game (8.6), blocks per game (2.7), PER (31.2 – 10th in DI), win shares (5.4), and plus-minus (13.6 – 3rd in DI).
Read more: Onyeka Okongwu Scouting Report
7. Killian Hayes (PG)
- Team: Ratiopharm Ulm
- Age: 19.3
- Height: 6-5
- Weight: 175
- Wingspan: 6-9
- Vertical:
As much as any team in the league, the Pistons were in a position to take the best player available with pick No. 7. Detroit’s top players under contract were two aging vets, Derrick Rose (PG) and Blake Griffin (PF), shooting guard Luke Kennard, and last year’s top pick, Sekou Doumbouya (PF). That was not a lot to work with, and the Pistons tried to rectify that by being aggressive with a number of trades and free-agent acquisitions, including a move that resulted in Kennard being shipped to the Clippers.
In pre-draft workouts, the Pistons looked at a number of point and combo guards, including Hayes, who is one the best playmakers in this class. The 19-year-old’s main weakness is his off hand, but the lefty told me during a pre-draft media session that he made significant progress with his right hand since his German BBL season ended. In preseason action, Hayes has had his struggles, but the presence of Rose will allow the 19-year-old to develop slowly while being mentored by a proven vet.
Read more: Killian Hayes Scouting Report
8. Obi Toppin (PF)
- Team: Dayton
- Age: 22.8
- Height: 6-9
- Weight: 220
- Wingspan: 6-11
- Vertical:
I probably disliked this pick more than any other in the draft. The Knicks have been looking for a franchise point guard for quite some time, and they also have a critical need for shooters. Last season, New York was near the bottom of the league in terms of 3-point percentage (33.7) and assist percentage (55.2), and finished dead last for 3-pointers made per game (9.6). Toppin is unlikely to help in any of these departments, while either Tyrese Haliburton, Devin Vassell, or Kira Lewis would have given the team a boost in those areas, and all three have more upside in my opinion.
At Dayton last season, Toppin was highly productive, produced many flashy dunks, and won a number of honors. However, he did so against below-average competition, and is a very old sophomore. More importantly, even though he is a good athlete, his overall skill set is not ideal to be a star in the NBA. He is suspect as a handler and a shooter, and he’ll also likely be a defensive liability on the perimeter.
Read more: Obi Toppin Scouting Report
9. Deni Avdija (F)
- Team: Maccabi FOX
- Age: 20.0
- Height: 6-9
- Weight: 220
- Wingspan: 6-10
- Vertical:
The Wizards went into the draft with the hope of bolstering the center position. Last season, the team ranked dead last in the league for rebounding percentage, next to last in defensive efficiency, and 25th for points allowed in the paint. Unfortunately for Washington, both James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu were gone by the ninth pick, and the club decided to go the best-available route instead of reaching for a prospect, such as Maryland’s Jalen Smith.
Avdija is versatile, can play at either forward spot, and even can serve as a point forward. He’s not overly athletic, and in the long run, he may be best suited to be a stretch-four. The young Israeli doesn’t excel in any one area, but he has a very nice overall skill set. He does a little bit of everything, and if he improves his shooting consistency and off hand, he will likely have a long NBA career. He’s also smart and competitive, and has proven that he can be produce and win at high level. On the other hand, he can be abrasive and seems to have a bit of a sense of entitlement, but that could change with maturity and a little taste of humble pie, which the NBA freely offers.
Read more: Deni Avdija Scouting Report
10. Jalen Smith (PF/C)
- Team: Maryland
- Age: 20.8
- Height: 6-10
- Weight: 225
- Wingspan: 7-2
- Vertical:
As is often the case with the Suns, the team’s selection of Smith made me raise an eyebrow. I was higher than most on the Maryland big man; this season; he hovered between 10-20 on the HP Draft Board, and ultimately finished at No. 12. However, I think the team may regret passing Tyrese Haliburton and Devin Vassell.
The trade to acquire Chris Paul gives Phoenix an impressive starting lineup, and the only player sent to Oklahoma City who provided major contributions to their undefeated run in the “Bubble” was Ricky Rubio. Going into the draft, the Suns appeared weakest at power forward; specifically, they had a need for a player who could bolster the club’s interior defense. Following the draft, the club signed free agent Jae Crowder and re-signed Dario Saric, and the presence of those two veterans means that Smith will likely get most of his rookie minutes at center as Deandre Ayton’s backup.
After starting at power forward as a freshman, Smith played almost exclusively at center this past season. He came to Maryland with the nickname of “Sticks” due to being ultra thin and having long arms and legs; however, he has significantly beefed up over the last two years, adding 30 pounds of muscle. His upper body is now very developed, but his legs remain on the skinny side. Smith is quick and agile for his size, and he plays with energy and effort. He also has good stamina, averaging more than 31 minutes per game last season in the physical Big Ten, a conference that was loaded with talented big men.
This past season, Smith was a first-team All-Big Ten and a Big Ten All-Defensive selection. He averaged 15.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game, with excellent shooting splits of .538/.368/.750. He finished in the top 10 of the conference for numerous categories, including points per game, rebounds per game, true shooting percentage (62.6), PER (29.7 — 19th in DI), win shares (6.2 — 19th in DI), and BPM (12.0 — 4th in DI). The only major area where he did not post at least average numbers was passing; he averaged just 0.8 assists per game, with a dismal A/T ratio of 0.47.
Read more: Jalen Smith Scouting Report
11. Devin Vassell (W)
- Team: Florida State
- Age: 20.3
- Height: 6-6
- Weight: 195
- Wingspan: 6-9
- Vertical: 33 inches standing, 38.5 max
The Spurs missed the playoffs for the first time in forever, and have a handful of aging veterans who could be traded as part of a rebuild: wing DeMar DeRozan, center LaMarcus Aldridge, guard Patty Mills, and forward Rudy Gay. The team does have a solid pair of young guards with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, while wings Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson have good potential. Quality big men are obviously missing from this young core, as forward Luka Samanic and center Jakob Poeltl may never live up to being top-20 draft selections.
This past season, San Antonio mainly struggled on the defensive end. The Spurs ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, and were especially poor at defending on the perimeter. Offensively, the story was almost the opposite; they ranked 10th in terms of overall efficiency, but were last in the league for percentage of points in the paint.
While the selection of Vassell may not have been the ideal pick in terms of need, the Florida State product was just too good to pass up at No. 11. The eighth overall prospect on the HP Draft Board, Vassell is the Spurs’ type of player — hard working, team-oriented, and multi-purpose. He is an excellent perimeter and team defender, which addresses one of San Antonio’s biggest issues, and he is very effective in a number of other ways.
Vassell has posted excellent numbers during the preseason, averaging 13.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.0 steals in three games. Typically, the Spurs are slow to incorporate rookies into the rotation, but I expect the 20-year-old to pick up most of the Bryn Forbes’ minutes (25.1 MPG last season, but now in Milwaukee).
Read more: Devin Vassell Scouting Report
12. Tyrese Haliburton (CG)
- Team: Iowa State
- Age: 20.8
- Height: 6-5
- Weight: 175
- Wingspan: 6-8
- Vertical:
The Kings managed to grab one of the biggest steals of the draft when Haliburton slid all the way to No. 12. The Iowa State product ranked between fourth and eighth on the HP Draft Board for all of last season (finished 7th), and was projected to go to the Bulls at No. 4 in the final 2020 HP Mock Draft.
The Kings came into the draft with an obvious need for another quality big man. Last season, the team ranked 27th in rebounding, 27th in blocked shots, and 19th for points scored in the paint. Haliburton will not help the Kings much in those categories, but he will offset the loss of Bogdan Bogdanovic. The rookie also has the versatility to be used as a point guard or a wing, which will give Sacramento the ability to use a variety of lineups.
It should be noted that Haliburton is not a pure point guard at this point in his career; as a pick-and-roll handler and isolation player, he can struggle to create shots, to shoot off the dribble, and to attack the rim. However, he has an exceptional feel for the game, is one of the better passers in this draft, and is solid as a shooter off the catch. Being unselfish, the rookie should have no problems fitting in with his fellow guards, De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield.
Read more: Tyrese Haliburton Scouting Report
13. Kira Lewis (PG)
- Team: Alabama
- Age: 19.7
- Height: 6-3
- Weight: 170
- Wingspan: 6-6
- Vertical:
The Pelicans did a lot of dealing during the draft. Ultimately, they acquired guard Eric Bledsoe, center Steven Adams, and a slew of future picks in exchange for Jrue Holiday and three 2020 picks. The addition of Adams will solidify the team’s frontcourt, but Bledsoe will not offset the loss of Holiday.
With this pick, the Pelicans could have gone a number of different directions, but Lewis, ranked 9th on the HP Draft Board, was clearly the best player available. He is lightning fast, a three-level scorer, and a triple threat. He also has potential to be a better-than-average defender. The Alabama product has a number of flaws and is still rather raw, but being one of the younger players in this draft class, he has plenty of upside, too.
During a pre-draft media session, it was clear to me that Lewis has a good head on his shoulders and was determined to improve. I asked him about what he had been working on the most in his pre-draft training, and he specifically mentioned shooting off the catch without a “dip,” which was one of his primary flaws that I noted when scouting him. The first step toward improvement is knowing your weaknesses, and I believe that Lewis will ultimately be a very good point guard in the NBA.
Read more: Kira Lewis Scouting Report
14. Aaron Nesmith (W)
- Team: Vanderbilt
- Age: 21.2
- Height: 6-6
- Weight: 215
- Wingspan: 6-10
- Vertical: 34 inches (standing)
Heading into the draft, the Celtics had three main needs: a facilitating point guard, a shooting wing with good size, and a two-way center. It was a long shot that all those holes could be filled in this draft, and the odds decreased even more when the team shipped the 30th overall selection to Memphis.
The Celtics’ primary need was finding a shooting wing who could provide a spark off the bench. Boston wasn’t an elite shooting team from deep during the 2019-20 regular season (36.4 percent), and the team’s inability to make threes became an issue in the playoffs (34.1 percent). Acquiring a shooter was especially important if Gordon Hayward left town, which ultimately did happen.
Unfortunately for the Celtics, wings with good size and shooting ability were in short supply in this draft. Nesmith is arguably the top 3-point marksman in this class, but I am not enamored with his overall game. He finished ranked 24th on the HP Draft Board, which was significantly lower than the collective opinion. There were a number of players that I preferred at this spot for Boston, including Saddiq Bey, who is similar in a number of ways, but is a much better defender.
Nesmith has a sweet shot that is prototypical of an NBA sharpshooter; it’s even more impressive because of his size and lift off the ground. He excels at shooting off screens, quickly squaring his body to the basket and releasing in a seamless manner. His ability to create space and shoot off the bounce is limited due to a lack of explosiveness and a nondescript handle, and these are aspects of his game that need to improve. The Vandy sophomore made 52.2 percent of his 3s this season, and in terms of PPP as a jumper shooter, he ranked at the 100th percentile on catch-and-shoot attempts and at the 78th percentile on off-the-dribble jumpers.
It must be noted that due to Nesmith being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right foot in early January, his sophomore campaign was limited to 14 games against less-than-stellar competition. However, his career 3-point percentage of 44.2 and his career free-throw percentage of 82.5 are good signs that this past season was no fluke.
There are aspects of Nesmith’s game that are a concern, both offensively and defensively. He is not a great shot creator, he struggles to finish around the basket (made just 45 percent of his half-court shots within seven feet this season), and he has yet to show that he can reliably facilitate for others (career assist-turnover ratio of 0.77). Most importantly, he is an average defender at best; he particularly struggles vs. jump shooters.
We have to keep in mind that Vanderbilt was a bad defensive team during his tenure, and a team’s ability to defend as a unit always impacts an individual player, especially statistically. Nevertheless, Nesmith’s defensive instincts and awareness are not the best; at times, he gets caught ball watching, and incorrectly anticipates ball handlers’ moves. Occasionally, he appears confused off the ball and ends up in no-man’s land. Also, he often reacts a second too late, and it is not difficult to catch him leaning the wrong way. On the upside, the sophomore is not a bad athlete and has good size and length. As a result, he does make some impressive shot contests/blocks as a help defender, and he produced respectable numbers in terms of steals and blocks combined per 40 minutes this season (2.6).
15. Cole Anthony (CG)
- Team: North Carolina
- Age: 20.6
- Height: 6-3
- Weight: 190
- Wingspan: 6-5
- Vertical: 43 inches (max)
Last season, the Magic lacked perimeter players who could shoot and play defense. In terms of 3-point percentage and 3-point percentage allowed, the club ranked 25th and 23rd, respectively. Starting point guard Markelle Fultz made significant progress, but still made less than 27 percent of his attempts from deep, and backup D.J. Augustin left via free agency. Additionally, the short-term and long-term health of Jonathan Isaac are big concerns; not only does the team lack a proven and reliable backup behind him, but he is also arguably better suited to play at the four spot.
I cannot argue with the selection of Anthony at No. 15. He has great potential, especially as a scorer. His freshman season was a mixed bag, and he was limited to 22 games due to injuries. He came to UNC with a reputation as an athletic and dynamic scorer as well as a tough rebounder and defender. He showed flashes of being all of those things, but he struggled mightily in certain areas. On the season, he averaged 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game, with shooting splits of .380/.348/.750. Anthony had a modest A/T ratio of 1.13 thanks to 3.5 turnovers per game. His PER of 18.6 was solid due to his overall productivity.
I believe that Anthony’s poor field-goal percentage and modest overall PPP of 0.85 (46th percentile) had a lot to do with poor shot selection, and that, in turn, was likely partially due to playing for a subpar UNC team. He showed great ability to create his own shot and shoot off the bounce, and those things are reflected in his other PPP numbers — he ranked at the 92nd percentile as an isolation scorer and at the 72nd percentile as a jump shooter off the dribble. On the other hand, he really struggled around the basket, where he made only 33 percent of his shots, including runners/floaters. Anthony drew a lot of defensive attention in the paint, and his lack of length didn’t help him either.
Anthony also showed that he might not be an ideal floor general. He’s a shoot-first point guard, and his vision, decision-making, and ball security all need to improve before he is handed the keys to run a pro offense. Similar things could be said about the youngster’s performance on the other end of the court. As an on-ball defender, he can be effective due to his athleticism, but his awareness and timing are lacking off the ball.
Also see Outlook for Picks 16-30
Sources, Credits, and Acknowledgements: Stats used in our scouting reports mainly come from Synergy Sports Technology, RealGM.com, and Sports-Reference.com. Other outside sources are noted with links to the source.